EFFECTS OF STOCK FREE FALL AT FORUM

Greatly humbled to share the table with some of the country's most esteemed economic experts during the weekly Fernandina Media Forum. Representing the Anvil Business Club (Association of Young Filipino-Chinese Entrepreneurs), yours truly was invited to embody the views of the Chinese-Filipino entrepreneurs and businessmen in a panel discussion about the effects of the recent DOW Jones and its concomitant consequences to the Philippine Stock Market, the collapse of the China Yuan (RMB), and the protracted Greece financial crisis. Joining me were former Department of Budget and Management Secretary Benjamin Diokno, Albay Governor Joey Salceda, and "Save the Nation Movement (Philippines)" Convener Antonio Butch Valdes.
The two-hour "kapihan" discussion, which had journalists and mainstream media having a field day covering the event, saw a colorful exchange of ideas, ranging from the recent PSE index (PSEi) plunge; the OFW's "Zero Remittance Day;" to China's weakening economy. Mr. Butch Valdes, a former Undersecretary at the Department of Education and head of the Philippine LaRouche Society, painted a bleak picture of China's "Black Monday," with the Shanghai composite index dropping 8.5% in the biggest selloff since 2007. "We are going to see the worst global financial crisis in these few weeks, even worse than the Great Depression of 1929," Mr. Valdes predicted, "and we are not going to be prepared for it." He pointed to the hundreds of billions of dollars which were wiped off from the world's financial markets in just a span of a day, as the Chinese rout sends shares tumbling in Europe, Asia and the US. "Those who aspire to become the next president of the Philippines at this point in time would have to be, in my opinion, the most stupid people on the planet," he sarcastically ruminated.
On the other hand, former Secretary Diokno played down the perceived effects of the seeming meltdown, citing the country's solid economic fundamentals. "The Philippines has hefty international reserves to sustain it for many months," he said, assuring that "debt service and trading requirements will be served." The falling Peso rate against the US Dollar, he says, could also be seen as something positive, especially for the OFWs (Overseas Filipino Workers), as the increased value of their remittances means that they can purchase more with the same dollar amount they remit. "Overall, there is a strong likelihood that the peso-dollar exchange rate would be between P44 to P47 per US dollar in the near term," he says. "This narrow range is not only likely; it is desirable. It addresses the welfare of overseas Filipino workers, the demand of a growing economy, and the desire of monetary authorities to keep their finances healthy."
For his part, Albay Governor Joey Salceda – a multi-awarded economics analyst – downplayed the most recent China crash's effect on the Philippine economy, citing the legendary resiliency of the Filipino to adversity. "Did you know that, in Bicol alone, during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, we registered an even bigger population size that year?" he jokingly mused. "That only means the Filipino believes that he can still afford to produce more babies despite widespread belt-tightening measures." He also expressed his continuing bullishness on the economy, citing temporary stock market price adjustments as a mandatory response to the plunging international stock prices.
Of course, as the person having the least amount of gravitas in the panel, I could only nod in agreement (read: nga-nga) and, at times, just smile in amusement on how these illustrious personalities facetiously engaged in oftentimes passionate – yet illuminating – tit-for-tat.
Established in 1992, the Fernandina Weekly Forum has become one of the most enduring and engaging gatherings organized by members of the mainstream Philippine media, where the people who matter most are asked to talk about the most relevant and pressing issues of the day.
Many thanks to Mr. Rod Cornejo for his gracious invitation for yours truly to play a small part in it.