ANVIL'S "GLOBAL OUTLOOK" WITH UBS

Greatly privileged to have the esteemed Yonghao Pu (浦永灝) – UBS AG's Managing Director for Wealth Management and Regional Chief Investment Officer of the Northern Asia-Pacific Region – discuss emerging global economic outlook for 2015 and beyond with the members of the Anvil Business Club (Association of Young Filipino-Chinese Entrepreneurs) in a private dinner session exclusive to Anvil Club members.
Entitled "Living in Diverging Worlds," the two-hour talk by UBS AG's renowned global investment strategist laid the predicate for investors living in a divergent world: with uneven economic growth and monetary policies implemented in diametrically-opposing paths across world markets, businessmen's concerns are exacerbated with geopolitical tensions which adds to the uncertainty Mr. Pu predicted the global economy would be moderately improving in 2015, as inflation would not pose a major risk, given the sharp decline in crude oil prices – a phenomenon not expected to change in the next months. Coupled by a broadening of growth drivers in the United States economy, such as the improvement of credit conditions, the improving U.S. job market and the sluggish wage growth, the U.S. macroeconomic picture is seen to accelerate from 2.2% to 2.9% this year. Europe, on the other hand, which has witnessed slow growth in 2014 at 0.8%, will continue to expect very modest acceleration to around 1.2% in 2015. This is due to the weakening Euro, an expansionary European Central Bank, and the improvement in credit conditions where companies and households are still in the process of de-leveraging. He also cautioned about an increasing private sector debt that can be a source of concern in Asia, particularly in China, where its corporate debt percentage has eclipsed that of the United States. Coupled with oversupply of inventory in the property sector, a decreasing competitiveness in wages, and the weaker economic momentum, China will be facing tougher times in the years ahead. The renowned strategic investment guru ended his presentation with a positive note for the Philippines: with an attractive price-earnings ratio and solid economic fundamentals, Mr. Pu predicted that the Philippines will continue to enjoy a high-performing economy. He advised that, in a world where the possibility of volatility gets higher, seeking a balanced portfolio will become increasingly more important for investors.
Mr. Pu graduated from Xiamen University with a Bachelor of Accounting
in 1982 and a Master of Economics in 1984. He also holds a Master of
Statistics from the London School of Economics. As one of the members of UBS AG's Investment Committee, he has contributed numerous articles to publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, International Economy, Cato Journal, and The Banker, among others. He has also been invited to speak on Asian economic issues at major economic events including the World Economic Forum, OECD Conference and China Summit.
Based in Switzerland, UBS AG is a global firm providing financial services to private, corporate and institutional clients. Individuals around the world look to UBS to provide them with the advice, expertise and opportunities they need to protect and grow their wealth.
Special thanks go to UBS AG Hong Kong Associate Director Sharlene Soo for hosting and arranging this presentation.